Yeah, the secondary market prices have gone up quite a bit in recent years, presumably because of low supply. I read somewhere that ALS produced ~ 3700 in the Covid years, as opposed to their regular quota of 5500. On top of that, ALS has a new model for supply and distribution to their ADs and boutiques, which also contributed to limited supply to the secondary market.

I've been following ZW (140.029) prices since last year. Last Aug secondary market average price was ~ 20% below retail. Now it is virtually nonexistent.

 

Two years ago I was buying a Lange 1815 Up / Down with a 30% discount from AD. My friend was buying Saxonia Thin this year. After long negotiations, he received 15% for the watch they had in place. Lange's policy is to sell at retail prices over time.

 

I keep reading that ALS from an AD is taking a huge depreciation hit right off the bat (30%-40%). Is that still really the case because I'm not seeing it (am I effectively too late to the party?).

Retail is $17.3K right now on the second hand market there's a 2013 from European Watch Company listed at $16.2K and a private market sale on chrono24 that looks like it went for 14K (2016 version which retailed $14.8K). A lot of the older 1815's from the 2000's are selling at well above what they sold for new on chrono24. If the original retail price is irrelevant on older models and they get priced against the current year version, then it would seem impossible to lose given prices go up every year in terms of retail...

I can't tell if I'm missing something because it seems like there's no incentive to go to the second hand market if their effectively pricing them close to retail. Which I guess is a good sign if prices are remaining stable, then I can go new without fear of an immediate loss in value and a stable second hand price over time.

You're not missing anything. Until recently, every standard-production Lange took a huge hit (I'd say 30%) if purchased at MSRP. That's not because Lange was overpriced compared to other high-quality brands. It was because the market for preowned Langes was very small. Now more people know about Lange, so good preowned deals are fewer. In addition, Lange has closed more ADs (who discounted), and boutiques don't discount.

[You could substitute "FP Journe" for "Lange" in the last paragraph. The only difference is we're seeing a real extreme when it comes to FP Journe -- fewer pieces and points of sale out there, astronomical prices, etc.]

As a result, the calculus has now changed. Now it makes more sense to purchase at retail, and even more sense to purchase at a boutique if you think you might want some harder-to-get Langes later (and if you want that extra year of warranty -- I think they still do 3 years for boutique purchases).

One thing, though: Lots of people prefer the older models for different reasons, and I can easily see people paying a premium for those older models. For example, I'm not the only person who really likes the looks of the older Lange 1 movements (with the two sub-bridges) and who'd much rather have one of those than the current Lange 1 movement. And of course, there are many more varieties to choose from if you go preowned.

And yes, the original retail price of a given Lange does become less relevant as time goes on. It used to be the case that if you bought a standard-production Lange at full retail and held onto it for say 10 years, you could probably sell it for about what you paid (since preowned prices gradually crept upwards, roughly tracking gradual increases in new retail prices).

EWC tends to price their watches aggressively, so they're not always the best benchmark for what things actually sell for -- though in most cases their listed prices are pretty close to what they get.

 

Thanks for the insight, I was really hoping I was missing something... looks like instead I just missed the party (cryto all over again!) Can't think of any reason to go second hand market to save a whopping 5%.

Obviously, you're not nostrodomas so I won't hold anyone personally liable for this advice, but in your opinion pretty safe bet that this trend will continue i.e. a standard production lange will likely continue to sell for near original retail down the line as the new model retails continue to creep upwards? That would make the pill of going AD pricing easier to swallow.

Also, I'm in the US, but I've been looking at AD's in EU and it would seem based on current fx and with VAT refunds it would be a better price to get it from the EU (assuming you can do VAT refunds for online purchases, I know I've purchased some high end knives online in which they gave a VAT discount).

 

Also, I'm in the US, but I've been looking at AD's in EU and it would seem based on current fx and with VAT refunds it would be a better price to get it from the EU (assuming you can do VAT refunds for online purchases, I know I've purchased some high end knives online in which they gave a VAT discount).

I have a piece on order from a brand in Germany, coming to the US. VAT will not be charged--they had to include it in my deposit, but will deduct it from the final payment when they can show the watch is being shipped to the US.

 

Yes, ALS has definitely risen in price past couple years. Credit goes to the luxury watch market in general and the talking hand.

 

[I[n your opinion pretty safe bet that this trend will continue i.e. a standard production lange will likely continue to sell for near original retail down the line as the new model retails continue to creep upwards? ...
Also, I'm in the US, but I've been looking at AD's in EU and it would seem based on current fx and with VAT refunds it would be a better price to get it from the EU (assuming you can do VAT refunds for online purchases, I know I've purchased some high end knives online in which they gave a VAT discount).

I have no idea if the trend will continue. As we know, the pandemic caused people to spend money on goods rather than experiences (costly travel, etc.) because experiences were unavailable for 2 years. Prices may soften if spending trends towards experiences again. On the other hand, more people know about Lange and are interested in it than we had two years ago. And then there are the more structural changes such as closing ADs and going to more of a no-discount, boutique-only model. Whatever happens in the long term, I don't see any major change happening soon unless there's an overall market crash (in which case we'll have a lot more to think about beyond watches).

Importing watches into the US means dealing with Customs and international shipping (greater risk, etc.). You have to price that into the equation.