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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
There is no question. Many different watch prices are going down. How much and for how long is debatable. But asking prices are dropping on many many watches.

Having said that; are lower prices a good thing? While I love being able to spend less on the watches I buy, it seems many watchmakers are on shoestring budgets. And historically brands get bought and sold and bought and sold and consolidated over and over again. And I can't think that the reason for this is due to great business models, and sound business practices and exploding revenues.

So maybe lower prices are a good thing to help these watch businesses become more efficient. Or maybe it will just drive more defunct brands, and more businesses to chase bottom end, low quality manufacturing; wherever that is in the world at that moment.
 

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of course falling prices are good...but where are you seeing falling prices??
 
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If you regularly transact, you'll find out. It doesn't really affect regular buyers at all who never go grey or keep/hold onto their watches for extended periods of time. I don't think any of the watches you listed in your signature are really affected anyway.

One major example is
February - March John Mayer daytona was peaking at $125k-130k transactions. This past week the listings are in the $80k but dealers are buying them at $65k if they're buying at all. This is an extreme case.

If you use only use chrono24 to reference your pricing, you'll see it a bit later, like 2-3 months later than when prices fall bc there are multiple listings of same watches by dealers to keep pricing up. Also most people talking about this don't actually buy anything. Mostly grey market spectators.

For brands like Rolex, the demand on the retail side is mostly the same. The recession will not show up in their books for another year or two. Their backlog of watch orders is too long. Many of them still can't deliver watch orders from 2019. But some of the less popular models may take a little longer to sell, like a week instead of a day on a $50,000 mother of pearl day date with diamonds.

For brands like Omega and IWC, hopefully they get the hint that their run is over and discount again. Would love to see 35-40% off like 4 years ago again.

For brands like Journe, their auction prices have cemented them as must haves. Those not coming down much aside from stuff that is in production, not as rare. But they'll never be the same as 4 years ago, ever again.

The people who will hurt the most are the secondary dealers or newer speculators who jumped in to "invest" in the last 3 years. But i think "investments" are down in every category.



of course falling prices are good...but where are you seeing falling prices??
 

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Isn't it mostly the gray market that has seen a dip?
The MSRP keeps going up all the time as far as I can tell.
Exactly.

The only significant dips that I've seen have been secondary-market prices of the select few hype-beast watches / watch brands that were selling for substantially over their MSRPs (aka "Stupid Money"). Anyone with half a brain cell knew that this wasn't sustainable long-term. The secondary market for these pieces that developed over the past two years was as perfect an analogue for Dutch Tulip Mania as I've ever seen in the modern world. And as with all highly-speculative assets, the secondary market prices for these hype-beast watches will plummet back to Earth if the stock market takes a dip. Nothing new or novel here. Move along.

Overall, I haven't seen all that much of a dip in used prices on the forums for the remainder of the watches that weren't propped up by hype-beast/speculator demand. Even during the pandemic, a vast majority of used watches still sold for 50-90% of their MSRP (depending on the popularity), and I haven't noticed that changing much in the recent stock market dip. Who knows what the future holds, but it really hasn't had that much of an effect up until now.

So if MSRPs are not dipping, and secondary market prices for most watches that always sold used for less than MSRP are relatively stable, then what changes are you referring to OP?
 

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Months ago, the Rolex 41mm "Cermit" was well over $20K and there wasn't one available (or sold) for less. Now, easily obtainable for under $20K secondary market. This is a good thing since I don't consider watches investments and hopefully, those who want their particular watches can somehow obtain them with a reduction in market premium. Another example: Red Sea-Dweller was being sold on FB for a shade over $16K but now most listings are coming down under $15K and not really selling. Even a modern DateJust is coming back near MSRP on the secondary market.

Hype/modern watches have been quickest to drop since the "flip the Rolex" had been a prevalent strategy. That said, I've seen only a slight decline in vintage prices, but it's harder to gauge since there aren't as many for sale as newer or modern watches.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
I think there are several examples, (many provided in responses) of watches that have stable pricing. MSRP seldom goes down if ever. However, I am seeing prices for everyday Rolex, Hamilton, Tissot, Breitling, Tudor, FC, Seiko, Rado, Omega and other non (PP, Journey, VC, AP Uber pieces) going down.
Your mileage may vary.

I was just trying to figure out if prices are falling, (and granted, some people here feel this is not happening), but if it was to happen; is that a good thing for the industry and the hobby?

On the surface lower prices sound great. But if manufacturers can only move product through deeply discounted channels, is that a good thing for the industry? I don't know.
 

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There is no question. Many different watch prices are going down.
Where?! Almost all manufacturers have increased their prices at the beginning of the year (Rolex, Tudor) or after the Watches & Wonders (IWC and others) or will do so within the next few months (Sinn in September). On the usual marketplaces, exchanges and sales platforms, the prices also move only in one direction, upwards.
I am probably too dumb to find the right marketplaces and therefore I would be very happy if you could tell me where I can get an IWC Aquatimer GST reference 3536-01 or 3536-03 for less than 4,000.00 EUR final price…
 
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I think there are several examples, (many provided in responses) of watches that have stable pricing. MSRP seldom goes down if ever. However, I am seeing prices for everyday Rolex, Hamilton, Tissot, Breitling, Tudor, FC, Seiko, Rado, Omega and other non (PP, Journey, VC, AP Uber pieces) going down.
For the hundredth time: Where are you seeing this?
 

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For the hundredth time: Where are you seeing this?
Comments along those lines are likely anecdotal and based upon observations of second-hand listings online. The sale listings here and elsewhere.

I’ll just say that my observation is that second-hand luxury watch prices appear to be softening. I’m basing that upon the listing prices here appearing to be slightly less asinine than they were a few months ago.

They've got a ways to come down before I’d be interested in buying anything though.
 

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Havnt noticed anything going down where I live……quite the opposite in fact.
 
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Falling secondary prices are great for the hobby.

Everything you wanted is more affordable. But what does it matter if you were never a real buyer to begin with?

Of course the economy not doing well is not good for the buyers...

The falling secondary prices mean hobbyists who were priced out can get in. Falling secondary prices mean less hobbyists will side gig as grey dealers. Falling secondary prices mean more watches will EVENTUALLY show up in the cases. No true WIS will be harmed by this, just speculators and spectators.

Manufacturers should go back to having to actually sell product instead of just hitting "upload" and manage their instagram page. Discounts were fine for... what... 200 years? They have to go back to actually try to sell the watch like have it in a display case for people to try on and having more knowledgable sales people. I would love for the days when Rolexes were 15% off and Omegas 40% off on the regular. Wouldn't you?

The recent increase in demand and secondary price did not result in any kind of breakthrough in our experiences as watch buyers. In fact, when products needed to be discounted, retailers and brands would do more events and shows to interact with the customers.



I think there are several examples, (many provided in responses) of watches that have stable pricing. MSRP seldom goes down if ever. However, I am seeing prices for everyday Rolex, Hamilton, Tissot, Breitling, Tudor, FC, Seiko, Rado, Omega and other non (PP, Journey, VC, AP Uber pieces) going down.
Your mileage may vary.

I was just trying to figure out if prices are falling, (and granted, some people here feel this is not happening), but if it was to happen; is that a good thing for the industry and the hobby?

On the surface lower prices sound great. But if manufacturers can only move product through deeply discounted channels, is that a good thing for the industry? I don't know.
 
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