Spot on in regard of the Pepsi starting the domino effect.

In regard of the market softening, it's not only the Russian allocations that were diverted towards other markets, the consequences of the war on the western economy had also its impact on the market, less people are buying, more are selling.

The future? no one can tell, so much is happening right now.

 

Thanks for checking in. Just a pure speculation from a Rolex fan who knows nothing as I thought it was only me. Sorry if this has been brought up before.

 

it’s going to be decades before the Russians come on line again after the war crimes.

 

Careful, no politics, as per forum rules, we don't want the thread locked. Thanks.

 

I think it was less about the product and more about the time in which the product was launched.
It’s all due to social media. Before SoMe, no one except for watch people had any idea how many GMT’s were going off shelves compared to Explorer II’s, for example.

The fact that every day sees the birth of a new self proclaimed watch expert on YT regurgitating specs of new releases and droning on about resale, investment and perceived exclusivity, means every man and his dog void of independent thought will adopt the same opinion and want the same watches.

The same could’ve happened to the Milgauss (to name a niche/ non-hype Rolex), circumstances just happened to favor the BLRO.

Herd mentality creates hype, not products.

IMO, obviously.

 

If we want to put a timeline, we can start in 2014 with the unexpected introduction of the WG BLRO, it was a big disappointement for a large number of Rolex fans, mostly long time fans that were nostalgic of the old Pepsi, justified disappointment since WG put it out of reach for the vast majority.

In 2016, the presentation of the ceramic Daytona shook the Rolex cosm after decades of no major changes in design, and despite the Daytona not being the most coveted Rolex by the masses (the Sub is the one IMMO), it has a lot of hardcore fans that were eager to put their hand on it, and there is so much that Rolex can supply, hence the prices jumping to more than 50% over MSRP, and up from there.

in 2018, the SS BLRO is announced, the fans are ecstatic, the forums, extrapolating with the success of the Ceramic Daytona, start speculating on the prices, throw a number that they all agreed on, $18K, and guess what, the grey dealers too are on the forum sniffing the wind's direction, and, surprise, the price is set at $18K.

By the end of 2018, and during the course of 2019, those who couldn't grab a BLRO, settled for a BLNR, and those who couldn't get either, remembered the unloved Hulk that went almost extinct if not from a regain of interest from collectors in 2015 when a rumor of discontinuation circulated. At the same time, in early 2019, a rumor of the discontinuation of the BLNR circulated (the BLNR was launched in 2013), prompting more people to seek it, increasing the demand for the Submariner and the Submariner Date LN in the process... and the ripple effect continued until reaching the point we are at today.

 

Wow, that pretty much sums it up. Great post. So that's why the hulk is currently priced the way it is now

 

^ that’s it. Close the thread.

 

So would you agree at some point people "settled" for the BLNR because they cannot attain a BLRO?

 

Covid and everyone staying home for two years is why prices skyrocketed, not Russia/Ukraine. Prices softened because people returned to normal life and travel, my guess is they will continue to soften over the next few years because of current high interest rates, and will drop even more if/when Rolex opens that new factory by the end of this decade.

 

Very true about the interest rates hike. I never put a thought or connection re Rolex hype and/or demand.

 

If daytona invented the rolex hype, pepsi gmt took it flying. The ops then took it to a whole new world.

 

I totally forgot about the Daytona hype.

 

Seems to me people are settling for any Rolex they can get at the moment.

I look on in wonder at the “Dusty old window queens” of yesteryear that are now on long wait lists 🤔👨🏻‍🦳

 

That sucks as when the Rolex inventory normalizes, I don't have much life to live as my age is getting up there. Lucky for those who are only getting started and young of age.

 

No Rolex for me either. Love their watches but don’t like their treatment of potential customers…….

 

Just out of curiosity, how long was the SS Pepsi discontinued?

My college roommate had one in 1978, and was probably the one responsible for me buying my Sub a couple years later (for 20% off MSRP, which wasn't uncommon at the time).

 

Just out of curiosity, how long was the SS Pepsi discontinued?

My college roommate had one in 1978, and was probably the one responsible for me buying my Sub a couple years later (for 20% off MSRP, which wasn't uncommon at the time).

The last iteration was the 16710 in production until 2007, and the 126710BLRO was introduced in 2018.

 

The re-release of the ss Pepsi certainly lit a renewed fire for many watch enthusiasts, but I think a bulk of the blame for the Rolex hype can be put squarely on the shoulders of influencers and hype beasts that just wanted to clout chase.

 

The Pepsi was definitely the first watch other than the Daytona that ADs would simply turn people away knowing they cannot fulfill all the inquiries. I wouldn't go as far to use words like culprit or chain effect, as I don't believe in causation of other models being unavailable.

Instead of being a one hit wonder, Rolex just happen to have many number 1 hits. Don't let the distracters fool you. Most people who buy DD, DJ etc actually want a DD, DJ.

 

Most people who buy DD, DJ etc actually want a DD, DJ.

EXACTLY! All those decades I wore only steel professional models, I always thought the DD & DJ were much nicer looking and finally bought some Datejusts in recent years....despite owning the white ceramic Daytona and the 2018 BLRO.
The only other watch I want is a Day-Date....but certainly don't need it.

 

So the title is a bit exaggerated, but was this the culprit of Rolex craze considering they only had the white gold version available prior to? Chain effect on other sport models started to have astronomical demand due to the scarcity of the Pepsi?... adding the OP, then DJ eventually as a hot commodity and so on.. Then a few years after, they released the SS oyster version as the jubilee version was already a hit. Even more chaos due to the lack of supply and extreme demand?

Now, there are even rumors that they will have even less production of the Pepsi due to the variances and manufacturing problems of the bezel insert. Right?!?

As I just recently went back to the Rolex scene trying different brands the past few years, I had a conversation with a friend who is an avid Rolex collector. It was brought to my attention that when the Russian war ends, even less Rolex will be allocated to the U.S. and other countries as Russia is a huge market to Rolex. During the ongoing war, some including myself get lucky here and there acquiring a super hot piece from an AD. Grey market pricing has even gone done down consistently as of late.Now where do we all stand when the war is over?

Although NO ONE truly knows the future market and availability for Rolex, I would like to start this conversation for reading material for all.

Thank you.

I see countless posts where people take a random watch (Seiko, Tudor, Omega, etc), and argue “it’s as good as a Rolex!”

But I never see anyone trying to justify a Rolex by comparing it to something else.

Is there hype? Yes. But they’re still some of the best and most iconic watches ever made,

 

I see countless posts where people take a random watch (Seiko, Tudor, Omega, etc), and argue “it’s as good as a Rolex!”

But I never see anyone trying to justify a Rolex by comparing it to something else.

Is there hype? Yes. But they’re still some of the best and most iconic watches ever made,

Yup.. We don't purchase a DJ and say, it's just as good as an Aqua Terra.

No disrespect to AT owners, as I have one as well.