Have shows like The Antiques Roadshow "Damaged" the hobby somewhat
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I believe in a broad sense you are correct. It seems the average person is trying to find a watch to flip, asking the value of something they found or inherited, trying to sell something for a price beyond it's worth. The other side of the coin is buyers paying high prices when before we always did our due diligence, tried to not pay retail, and looked for a discount. Today people are paying premiums, paying over retail, buying at MSRP and expecting everything to be worth more than they payed for it. Hopefully it's a market trend that will correct itself.
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The experts are absolutely real. I've known a couple of them, one of whom I've brought and sold from many times. The problem with AR is the viewers and their inability to understand what "insurance value", "retail value" and "fair market value" mean. These terms are not interchangeable and they are often wildly divergent.
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They all wear expensive watches. Cory..Kory (?)...can be seen wearing a Richard 'Dick' Mille.
They make sure the camera work doesn't zone in on the watch. Because otherwise, someone would be looking for ad money to promote the watch.
Kinda like when TV shows stick a piece of tape over the Ford emblem on a steering wheel. Everyone knows it's a Ford but unless they get paid by Ford to remove the tape. There it will stay.
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The only watch story from the show that I can even remember (and I've watched around 100 episodes over the years) is this guy:
You can interweb search and find out how it all turned out for him. It's a good story.
You can interweb search and find out how it all turned out for him. It's a good story.
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It's for those reasons I do NOT try to sell anything on local social media sites, or to anyone I have never met. I could easily be tempted to sell here on the forum, but there are too many sticky obstacles to get around...like (ME) knowing service intervals, correct reference numbers, indicating all blemishes, and I mean ALL blemishes to prospective buyers! This is exactly why I try to deal with only one person, a seller at a local flea market, and nothing but affordable.
I tried to have a nice old ladies cocktail watch appraised by a jeweler, but was told to get it running and sell it, it's worth a lot. They didn't know enough about the platinum, the diamonds, or that it was made for Tiffany to give out a good appraisal.
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I am not bothered by retail or auction prices increasing due to demand. That's life and good things can come out of that increased interest.
The only thing I don't like is wannabe vintage dealers asking totally unrealistic prices much higher than market and keeping watches out of the hands of people who would enjoy them. I see many collectable watches sold in Germany which are at or below market being scooped up by dealers and then listed on ebay a few days later at double the price or more beyond any recent sale price. They don't sell but the dealers seem satisfied to hold them indefinitely. Of course they're free to do that but I find it irritating.
The only thing I don't like is wannabe vintage dealers asking totally unrealistic prices much higher than market and keeping watches out of the hands of people who would enjoy them. I see many collectable watches sold in Germany which are at or below market being scooped up by dealers and then listed on ebay a few days later at double the price or more beyond any recent sale price. They don't sell but the dealers seem satisfied to hold them indefinitely. Of course they're free to do that but I find it irritating.
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People like Hoddinkee, Theo and Harris and the Urban Gentry are more or less what I consider the roots of the problem. This is what happens when you have some not knowledgeable young noobs trying passing themselves for experts and long time collectors when they are absolutely unknowledgeable people for starters and second they are very hardly if not long time collectors. It is more or less the same with Antiquorum with Romain Rea or Christies as well as other auction houses who pushed the hype for the auctions where people put the most money on the table even if what they buy isn't 100% pristine condition,a potential frankenwatch and not really authentic.I have my couple of good guys I will always deal with on chrono 24 but with some big names ,I will always avoid them.If you look and hunt well, you can find something,if you want to just buy the same watch than everyone has, you will hardly find something.
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From what I can tell, most all the watches appraise on AR are simply household possessions of the family or individual presenting them for appraisal. I don't know how that would deflate the passion for collecting watches. As mentioned before, they were mostly rare examples of a particular brand's model, and frankly some of them weren't valued very high. From a collector or hobbyist standpoint, it's kind of hard to run out and start collecting rare watches because they can't be purchased brand new. Most of the ones I've seen appraised had been in the family for decades and purchased new, so it wasn't like they were purchased as an investment.
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curious...how has the hobby been ruined for you? you have an AP, PP and 2 rolex...whatsa matter...not enjoying them?
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Most vintage Seiko’s (except a few super hyped up models) are going for peanuts. They are easily on-par with Rolex and Omega of that time, and much better and nicer that other middle of the road swiss or german brands. It’s crazy how cheap they are. KS, 83xx, 62xx, LM, 52xx, 51xx and more, And I see people pay 5 times more for European watches from that era, with lazy and uninspired designs, base metal cases, generic movements etc.
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I think the "WUS Road Show" has had way more impact of the casual watch person as evidenced by the parade of the daily one-thread-and-done-grandpa's-watch people. Any number of the WUS Road Show experts can quickly walk the grandpa's watch people through what the utter train wreak their watch is...and like everything else, every blue moon, a nice watch comes along. 
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That's just it.I think the "WUS Road Show" has had way more impact of the casual watch person as evidenced by the parade of the daily one-thread-and-done-grandpa's-watch people. Any number of the WUS Road Show experts can quickly walk the grandpa's watch people through what the utter train wreak their watch is...and like everything else, every blue moon, a nice watch comes along.
For YouBoob influencers and Instagram dimwits to affect the unwashed masses people have to seek them out. AR on the other hand has been broadcasted into houses on PBS for decades. Social media plays a role, but Antiques Roadshow is the granddaddy beginning of "What's this worth" posts
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Here's the video I referenced earlier. Single lady and not grandpa but Dad. Saying Dad is sick. "He's" liquidating things. So my sister and I was searching his things. Found a box full of watches.
Her reaction at the prices starts a little after the 3min mark. She's crying with joy at the values. Excited.
I'm sure Dad has(had) a will, Honey. How do you know you're the kid getting the money?
Her reaction at the prices starts a little after the 3min mark. She's crying with joy at the values. Excited.
I'm sure Dad has(had) a will, Honey. How do you know you're the kid getting the money?
Antiques Roadshow probably inspires people who are familiar with the top brand names but not the watches themselves to eagerly buy any junk that bears said names hoping for a windfall gain. Thus it benefits sellers who have such items to unload them to wealth seeking scavengers but has no effect on actual watch collectors who know what say a Cartier should look like.
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It is my view that some of these shows are scripted and if there is something of value to be appraised, the item itself has been "planted" by the show's producers for the suspense (to allow for a commercial break) and then the dramatic effect of having something of value.
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Could be. Never watched the show but I guess it's at least somewhat popular given this thread. I can't speak to the autheticity of the show, but I had always presumed that nowadays with the internets everyone would google and know a rough idea of what everything they sell is worth. And then just recently I came across a dirt cheap great condition duoplan at a price that I wouldn't even dream of hoping for and snapped it up. Likely someone selling parents' old stuff and had no clue what it was.
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"“A thousand men, say, go searchin’ for gold. After six months, one of them’s lucky: one out of a thousand. His find represents not only his own labor, but that of nine hundred and ninety-nine others to boot. That’s six thousand months, five hundred years, scramblin’ over a mountain, goin’ hungry and thirsty. An ounce of gold, mister, is worth what it is because of the human labor that went into the findin’ and the gettin’ of it.”
-- Howard the old prospector, Treasure of the Sierra Madre.
That one statement, and especially the last sentence, is an entire course in economics. It explains both sides of the law of supply and demand, and the rise and fall of civilizations. It is the most concise explanation for the value of things that I have ever read/heard. Why shouldn't an old Bulova be an excellent investment? There's only one reason. If they are commonplace, making the "findin' and the gettin' of it" easy. We can talk about the value of heritage or history, but the bottom line is that the value of a tangible good comes down to what it costs you to obtain it. And that, in turn, is subject to supply and demand.
"Look at this. [holds out a pocket watch] It's worthless. Ten dollars from a vendor in the street. But I take it, I bury it in the sand for a thousand years, it becomes priceless..."
-- Belloq, Raiders of the Lost Ark
Yes. Because it became rare, and even the single one that survives and is found will be found by luck, and a lot of work.
So take your watches and bury them in the sand. In a thousand years, truly, they will be priceless. But it's the first 900 years that are the hardest.
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