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Unfortunately it’s the people that for example have purchased a SS Daytona for let’s say $17k and think that it will be worth $22k in a short time that are perpetuating the problem. Demand is super high right now, but I remember a time not too long ago where it was fairly common to see a SS Daytona in the display case. IMHO, the bubble is persisting for now, but it will burst with a cooling of the economy. It’s just a watch, and there are a great deal of similarities to the housing bubble of 2007. If the everyday consumer flat-out refused to pay over MSRP, it would negate most of this problem. Time will tell.

JMHO of course.
 

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Ariel and I could be friends in real life. When I read things he writes or listen to what he says I often agree. He has a passion for watches and isn't wrapped up in the whole money aspect. When I got into this hobby, resale value and hoarding special pieces for potential future profit wasn't the norm. I miss those days.

You can listen to a similar discussion in this episode of Spending Time:

The Highs & Lows Of Modern Rolex Watch Shopping
 

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Thanks for sharing! ABTW is my favourite go to for watch reviews. This article is a timely reminder for us all who support the opportunists are guilty of killing off our hobby. There'll be a market correction soon enough.
 

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From the consumer view point, one of the things to do is to not be fixated on a given watch. When you pay up for a watch, you support a market value that is built on scarcity which for mainstream watch models is clearly transitory. A maker like Rolex ultimately is going to make enough Daytonas or Submariners to fill market demand. Rather than pay up for a watch in a transitory price bubble, shop the alternatives which are not. For Submariners, Blancpain is a great place to start and for Daytonas, Audemars, Jaeger, Blancpain and Vacheron are great places to start. Remember that the price premium steel Rolexes command today are to some degrees based upon a desire to have the latest and greatest which are short supply, but that Rolex production levels are ultimately going to eliminate market shortages of these watches while the other brands you might consider produce fewer watches across their entire lines in a year than Rolex produces in a single line in a year. So when you buy an alternative, you get something that is relatively rare today and will be rare tomorrow, unlike the Rolex.

Remember, as nice as Rolexes are, there are nicer watches to be had, especially if you're willing to spend more.
 

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I see 20 year old GMTs going for more than a new one. That is crazy and totally not worth it. Also, they are not rare, they are a dime a dozen. People are just being crazy!

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 

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Maybe I'm just cranky in my pre-caffeinated state this morning, but this comes across as quite a hit piece: on Rolex, on the grey market, and even on watch buyers themselves, as if we're all conspiring together to ruin the watch industry and just need to stop it by buying other brands of watches instead.

I mean...c'mon now...you have your heart set on a Rolex, but you need to do the "right thing" and go purchase an Omega or TAG Heuer instead, and do your part in fixing the problem?

Regards,
Alysandir
 

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Your have been lucky.

I didn’t see a Daytona at an AD since 1992.
This may be the difference of being located in the more Rural USA vs Great Britain or the EU. You guys have had more scarcity than the US for a long time. Honestly, I believe this may be as a result of your (collectively) interest in fine timepieces. IMHO, Americans want cheap disposable goods, and many lack the appreciation for something made to last a lifetime.
 

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I like Ariel and ABTW. However, every article he writes is so long-winded and drawn out, it’s like his professor gave him a huge word count and he’s doing everything possible to hit it.
Such terrible prose. I'm embarrassed for him. He's not getting the editing he needs.
 

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Kind of a long read for very little information or insight. What can a consumer do? Basically nothing.

“If you agree that watch speculators and watch scalpers are a problem, then vote with your money and simply don’t feed the beast.”

The only way to win is to not play the game. Thanks, I guess.
 

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I think this is a combination of factors from a hot economy to Rolex wanting to move up market and drive prices in a certain direction to extend their brand value. I've had some AD's indicate the entire steel professional line now requires a purchase of a datejust or two tone piece to order 1 steel sports watch. I agree that the bubble will burst but when that will happen who knows. A big recession will definitely help, I bought my first rolex GMT during the 2008 financial crisis and the watch would sell for double what I paid 10 years later.
 

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I wonder what will happen to the vintage market during a recession. 1016 + 5513 prices nosedive?
Owners: The people who can throw down $12K for a decent 1016 or 5513 are the same people to whom a recession doesn't have an impact. Sure, it hits their portfolio's and home values, but it's not like a recession is going to cause them to liquidate their jewelry. Vintage Rolex will be just fine, prices will stay where they are.

Dealers: The glut of vintage Rolex inventory lives with a handful of dealers to whom Rolex will still be their most desirable asset and not something they'll want or need to dump at bargain basement prices. They own enough Panerai, IWC, AP, Omega, Jaeger, Longines, and other stock to take that hit and open up some cash to bridge any gap to the next uptick in the economy. This cycle has happened so many times for them, they know to wait it out.

What we really should be talking about is the collapse of the Swiss watch industry which is right around the corner and has nothing to do with a possible recession. Every kid graduating college this May has never had a wristwatch in his life, has had a cellphone since age 13, and does not value an expensive piece of shiny jewelry. Vintage models aren't the worry; it's brand new watches that are going to become extinct. And thus the reason for the Rolex shortage we feel today. They are doubling-down on the luxury market, creating scarcity which leads to desirability which leads to increased demand which leads to higher prices and a safe market space to thrive in for the next 50 years.
 

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I haven't had a chance to read the full article but had to post based off my experience from today. I live in Phoenix and went to Scottsdale Fashion Square. I popped into a Rolex retailer there and was truly amazed. There was not a single stainless steel sports watch in the entire store. Also no Tudor Black Bay GMT which I mean come on. I talked with the saleswoman and expressed my shock. Just last year they would at least have had one sub and a black bezel gmt master ii, Milgauss and Explorer. Their entire Rolex display case had been downsized as well.
The saleswoman told me that at their last meeting with a rolex rep, Rolex assured them this was all demand and not a purposeful reduction in supply. Worldwide demand went up and Rolex was now working weekends and nights to try to keep pace. She felt that the days of Rolex having every model in stock was gone. She also seemed truly annoyed because it hurt their profits as well. Scottsdale has a huge “snow bird” population as well as international visitors looking to buy nice things.

After this visit I went to the Omega boutique and tried on a brand new Seamaster 300m diver and a Speedmaster with Hesalite crystal. I had so much fun with the staff there and such a huge selection of watches at near bargain prices (compared to Rolex) that I may now go with one or both watches!
It’s a shame because for so long I’ve dreamed of a Rolex but now I’ve begun to look elsewhere without even wanting to


Cheers
 

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The market is what the market will bear. Period. I'm not a dealer, scalper, etc, but you can't blame them for them for making a profit from a Rolex sports watch if one is there to be made. What's the first thing a realtor does prior to listing any one of our homes? They run a market analysis to see what homes similar to each of ours in that respective location have recently sold for or are listed at. It's like that in every industry on our planet. I worked in the negotiation business for a long time (not the housing market) and it's about leverage. If you don't have leverage then there isn't a premium. The supply isn't filling the demand. The scalpers aren't ruining it. The manufacturer who isn't willing to fill the demand and/or the costumer willing to pay a premium are. If large, white used SUV's are suddenly going for a 50% profit margin, you can get your ass you'll find my number on autotrader.com.
 
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