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Real interesting article and appears to be something that will continue into the future. This company uses data from sites like Chrono24 to assess which brands are experience growth in interest and purchases. Some of the choices may surprise you.


Chronolytics: Part II - AskMen
 

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Thanks for posting. Interesting read. According to this, I did good buying a Frederique Constant Manufacture Movement watch. And my fascination with Nomos will likely put one in collection in the future. Perrelet, Uboat and some of the others are of little interest to me. Not because they aren't good, but because they're either too safe, too big or designs that just don't pique my interest.
 

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Curious as to their method of collecting data considering the variety.

I disagree with the focus of the article because watches, especially new ones should not be investments. Of course askmen is targeting non-wis so this article might be more influential if even glanced at.
 

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I, too, wonder about their methodology. Are they simply counting clicks by brand? That can possibly be misleading depending on how one intends to use their data. I use chrono24 to either (a) establish market value (so I'm looking at condition and price for every one of a particular model) or (b) research/learn about a particular piece's features. My personal activity, then, may be a direct correlation with the number of particular pieces listed for sale. If I'm trying to establish market value and I look at all six of one that are available for sale and all three of another, it doesn't mean I'm twice as interested in the first; I'm equally interested. Also, if it takes me three hits to find what I'm looking for about the feature of a particular watch, but only one hit for another watch, I'm not three times as interested in the first, as I get the sense their data will suggest.
 

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Thanks for sharing this. My Uboat feels vindicated ;-)
 

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Nice to see that Cartier did quite well. I am certainly surprised at UN's position though I would have thought it would be much lower.
 

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I don't buy it. It's based on what's popular-not good watchmaking. Maybe Uboat has made improvements, but it's still got a long ways to go before you can compare it next to Blancpain. This is based on a popularity contest, not the long haul, so this can't reflect an increase in collector's value-as IMHO it's short term and trendy: "Well, it's not a top 20 of the most popular brands but rather a top 20 of the brands that are currently provoking increasing interest among consumers."

 

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Seems to me there are multiple inherent flaws in the dataset and thus the interpretations.

1) The data is only from Chrono24, and thus only reflects limited sales/views from non-ADs and is weighted towards resales (as opposed to new sales).
2) The data does not reflect new purchase and hold transactions, i.e. people who love watches, buy a great one, and then keep it for a long time.
3) The data is weighted towards watches that are most likely to be resold often, i.e. less expensive watches that are knowingly available on the secondary market. Thus Patek Philippe or Franck Muller would be under-represented.

Thus while this is an interesting exercise, like with all statistical results one has to first ask some key questions. Is the data truly representative of the field as a whole? What are the assumptions being made by the study designers. And, what are the inherent biases/self-interest of the study designers.

OMHO, Milt
 
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