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And THAT is why some of us who are newer to the vintage watch collecting game have stayed away from them!!

I wish I had been into this hobby back when there were bargains aplenty to be found. :(

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I guess one question is whether we are currently seeing a bubble, and prices will come back down, or whether they are just going to continue to escalate and get further and further out of reach. I would like to believe it's the former, but I'm afraid that it is the latter, so I will still buy one if I can get it at a fair market price.

What really annoys me is the price-gougers who sit with vintage chronographs on their websites with asking prices that are 3x the auction value. The prices are rising so fast that they would rather let their inventory sit for months, looking for a huge windfall, than turn over their watches at a good profit.
 

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What really annoys me is the price-gougers who sit with vintage chronographs on their websites with asking prices that are 3x the auction value. The prices are rising so fast that they would rather let their inventory sit for months, looking for a huge windfall, than turn over their watches at a good profit.
This. Annoys me no end. Tired of seeing listings sit or be refreshed for months on end, waiting for unsuspecting buyers or for the crazy market to catch up.
 

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I guess one question is whether we are currently seeing a bubble, and prices will come back down, or whether they are just going to continue to escalate and get further and further out of reach. I would like to believe it's the former, but I'm afraid that it is the latter, so I will still buy one if I can get it at a fair market price.

What really annoys me is the price-gougers who sit with vintage chronographs on their websites with asking prices that are 3x the auction value. The prices are rising so fast that they would rather let their inventory sit for months, looking for a huge windfall, than turn over their watches at a good profit.
You summed it up pretty well. The people who sell crappy condition items for three times their value are far worse than price gougers, they are just a bunch of dishonest crooks. The hunt for many new collectors for a nice vintage timepiece will be very very complicated and not to mention that even some not so highly ranked brands such as Nivada command a premium because also of blogs like Hoddinkee who sell crappy condition watches at an insane pricing level. This happened because of the valjoux 72 powered Rolex Daytona and because of the valjoux 72 powered Heuers rise in prices and record broken in auctions. Will it ever stop? I don't think so. Conclusion is simple, look for some very nice condition timepieces from not so well known brands featuring a nice movement or hunt on ebay , catawiki and chrono 24 and check everytime you see something interesting and try to win auctions
 

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I guess one question is whether we are currently seeing a bubble, and prices will come back down, or whether they are just going to continue to escalate and get further and further out of reach. I would like to believe it's the former, but I'm afraid that it is the latter, so I will still buy one if I can get it at a fair market price.
Yes, it is a bubble, and yes, prices will decrease. In fact, as I have mentioned previously, it is already happening, but you won't notice if you focus only on the most obvious and desirable models. There is a bifurcation in the vintage market, and it is accelerating, which is precisely what happens in blow-off bubble tops.

What really annoys me is the price-gougers who sit with vintage chronographs on their websites with asking prices that are 3x the auction value. The prices are rising so fast that they would rather let their inventory sit for months, looking for a huge windfall, than turn over their watches at a good profit.
Don't let it annoy you – many will get stuck with much of their stock, trying to "catch a falling knife" when the bubble bursts.
 

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Hi Tony,

I do not know, if a general decreasing in prices of vintage chronographs is the truth.
There are some signs and you are right, there are some decreasing prices of some models/brands.
But I think (and everybody knows), that the increasing prices of the last years were abstruse and that this could not go on any further.
Now, the prices are sometimes decreasing and sometimes stable, but I see the reason in the developement in the years before.

As a collector, I do not be afraid about a burst of a bubble.
Sure, I have bought some watches in the last years and perhaps (because of a bubble), I have paid to much.
But I still have some dream watches. Today, they are not affordable to me, but if the bubble burst.......

As a collector, I love my watches every day and do not think about their current value.

Best regards,
Peter
 

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Hi Peter,

I agree with much of what you say. I remain very active in the market, and in some instances am willing to pay a premium for a watch that I really like. I won't fret when prices decline, but then I am not a dealer who needs to generate a profit, either.

What has been happening is that lesser examples, in terms of brand and/or condition, have either stabilized, or seen decreases in value. Of course those found in the most desirable genres (e.g. chronographs, vintage divers) do not lose value as rapidly as those that are less fashionable, but they will not be immune to market forces when the economic crisis, which never truly ended, unfolds again in earnest.

The beauty of what is happening now is that there are many, really excellent vintage watches that are increasingly available at very attractive prices. So, collectors who follow their own taste, rather than current fashion, have no reason to feel frustrated.

Regards,

Tony C.
 

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Hi Peter,

I agree with much of what you say. I remain very active in the market, and in some instances am willing to pay a premium for a watch that I really like. I won't fret when prices decline, but then I am not a dealer who needs to generate a profit, either.

What has been happening is that lesser examples, in terms of brand and/or condition, have either stabilized, or seen decreases in value. Of course those found in the most desirable genres (e.g. chronographs, vintage divers) do not lose value as rapidly as those that are less fashionable, but they will not be immune to market forces when the economic crisis, which never truly ended, unfolds again in earnest.

The beauty of what is happening now is that there are many, really excellent vintage watches that are increasingly available at very attractive prices. So, collectors who follow their own taste, rather than current fashion, have no reason to feel frustrated.

Regards,

Tony C.
Very good and well argumented response Tony. I too remain active as a vintage watch collector but I always remember of four basic rules:
-always buy the seller first not the watch
-check lesser known brands such as wyler, dreffa, ollech &wajs, britscar, orfina, lejour, lemania, jürgensen, zodiac, clebar, mathey tissot, nivada, cyma , revue, certina, longines (yes some longines valjoux 72 powered models can still be had at reasonable prices), armand nicolet, lephare, eberhardt, sinn offer still quality chronographs with vintage valjoux or lemania column wheel movements that can be bought at reasonable prices
-ask for as many photos as possible and overhaul/service receipt if the seller claims that it was serviced
-you can't buy something now, spare money and you will buy it later and never have regrets because you can't buy everything.
Good luck and good hunting
 

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I have noticed this as well. You can see almost the same thing with vintage dive watches. I tend to gravitate toward that style and have seen the prices skyrocket to 2x-3x what they should be. Even the cheap pin lever no jewel "dive style" watches are going for $100! You used to be able to find them all over for a fiver! I too hope this is a bubble because I'm sick of sitting on an auction and having it end up at some unreasonable price in the end.
 

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Keep one thing in mind, despite rightly calling the price development idiotic: These are prices in n-o-m-i-n-a-l value. Take for instance the wrotten and filthy operetta-currency called Euro. 500 units of that trash have a value of 200 a while ago. Perhaps the prices are even falling in real terms.

I saw an ad today trying to attract people for a currywurst and French fries for 4,50 Euro-filth. That was not even 1,50 not so many years ago (1,20 when the Euro replaced other currencies in 2002).

I was not at a typical tourist-rip-off in the usual places, but the sign was standing in an office building environment as an 'attraction'. If you then also take into account the drastic worsening of the quality down to wrotten meat and foul potatoes beconing main ingredients, you come to another judgement of price developments. And don't compare salaries in this respect, they are also only in nominal value.
 

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Keep one thing in mind, despite rightly calling the price development idiotic: These are prices in n-o-m-i-n-a-l value. Take for instance the wrotten and filthy operetta-currency called Euro. 500 units of that trash have a value of 200 a while ago. Perhaps the prices are even falling in real terms.
Crap quality items shouldn't even be on sale on the market however dishonest sellers and crooks are doing all their best to bait and trap a poorly informed purchaser or those who jack up prices in order to maximize profits are often selling junkpile condition timepieces for people with a fat wallet.
 

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Keep one thing in mind, despite rightly calling the price development idiotic: These are prices in n-o-m-i-n-a-l value. Take for instance the wrotten and filthy operetta-currency called Euro. 500 units of that trash have a value of 200 a while ago. Perhaps the prices are even falling in real terms.

I saw an ad today trying to attract people for a currywurst and French fries for 4,50 Euro-filth. That was not even 1,50 not so many years ago (1,20 when the Euro replaced other currencies in 2002).

I was not at a typical tourist-rip-off in the usual places, but the sign was standing in an office building environment as an 'attraction'. If you then also take into account the drastic worsening of the quality down to wrotten meat and foul potatoes beconing main ingredients, you come to another judgement of price developments. And don't compare salaries in this respect, they are also only in nominal value.
I rarely comment on off topic rants, but this goes a bit far.

well, yes - restaurants and snacks did rise disproportionally in some countries, but most of us do not calculate currency values by Currywurst (good or bad) pricing - if you are interested in historical CPI date, here's your source, the HCPI or "Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices" for the EU countries; afraid there is no specific Currywurst Index though:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/services/escb/html/table.en.html?id=JDF_ICP_COICOP_INX

now to your "500 units of trash now have a value of 200" claim - the Euro countries had an average inflation rate of 1.68% per year between 2002 and 2017 to a total of 28.31% - so you'd have to spend €1.2831 today to purchase items and services of a €1 value in 2002. or "500 units of trash now have a value of 390.625".

would love to find branded chronographs at this level, will pass on the Currywurst.
 

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I rarely comment on off topic rants, but this goes a bit far.
What do you men 'off topic'. We are talking about the development of prices (here for vintage watches) and I simply pointed out that you should not compare at the level of nominal values, that is totally misleading, especially if everything is denominated in an operetta-currency like the Euro.
 

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Please put the lid on this discussion or move over to the Café - or I'm afraid I'll have to put the lid on it for you. We are here do discuss watches and their prices and this conversation is veering a little too much off course (plus the tone is getting a little severe). Thanks.

Hartmut Richter
 

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Please put the lid on this discussion or move over to the Café - or I'm afraid I'll have to put the lid on it for you. We are here do discuss watches and their prices and this conversation is veering a little too much off course (plus the tone is getting a little severe). Thanks.

Hartmut Richter
Let me see if I can tie this all together.

hotdog_watch-r70dc0c63a8294dde83f27bd06c1d0b43_zd5ip_324.jpg
 
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