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As of late I have been jones’n for a 5513 only to find the prices to be quite high. Are they at an all time high? Do you think these prices will hold, go higher, or fall at some point?
 

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As of late I have been jones’n for a 5513 only to find the prices to be quite high. Are they at an all time high? Do you think these prices will hold, go higher, or fall at some point?
Hold at least for a while but eventually go higher unless there’s a global crash. That’s the Vintage world!!
 

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As of late I have been jones’n for a 5513 only to find the prices to be quite high. Are they at an all time high? Do you think these prices will hold, go higher, or fall at some point?
They are at an all-time high right now. The economy is very strong at the moment, and pre-owned Rolex prices reflect that fact. My experience has been that the price of a 5513 might soften a little with a change in the market or in the economy, but I wouldn’t expect much of a price drop. With the housing market crash of 2007, there was some increased availability, but prices didn’t drop much on Vintage Rolex.

My experience has been that if you want a sport model with a plexiglass crystal........waiting will only mean a higher price down the road. I bought my 5513 for less than $4,000 within the last 10 years if that tells you anything.
 

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July and August is also a very slow time for the watch market. We’ll be entering “watch season” in a few months and it’ll be interesting to see what the market and economy does...


Sent from my cracked, broken hand wound phone. IG @morning_tundra
 

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I wouldn't anticipate the 5513 or the 1680 to move too much. If there is an example that resonates with you, I would start negotiating with a seller. As scarce as vintage pieces may be, watches in great condition (unpolished) are even rarer and are less susceptible to the swings. To me, that is worth the 'premium' you would pay irregardless of the market as those 'exceptions' will still stand out when the market drops.
 

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The expression “hens teeth” or “rocking horse poo” springs to mind!! Oh, those and re-mortgage!!
And with refinishing getting so good and so widely available, originals are increasingly hard to identify. I think we’ll see value premiums shifting from condition to provenance.

I suspect the biggest risk to future prices and buyer/investor confidence is the “super replica”. Higher prices will be an incentive to crank out more if this poisonous junk.


Sent from my cracked, broken hand wound phone. IG @morning_tundra
 

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And with refinishing getting so good and so widely available, originals are increasingly hard to identify. I think we’ll see value premiums shifting from condition to provenance.

I suspect the biggest risk to future prices and buyer/investor confidence is the “super replica”. Higher prices will be an incentive to crank out more if this poisonous junk.


Sent from my cracked, broken hand wound phone. IG @morning_tundra
I think that’s a pretty fair assessment.
 

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The vintage market is treacherous and no place for people who aren't experts. I'd rather buy new or recent.

Personally, I want no Rolex before the 5 digit references anyway.
 

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And with refinishing getting so good and so widely available, originals are increasingly hard to identify. I think we’ll see value premiums shifting from condition to provenance.

I suspect the biggest risk to future prices and buyer/investor confidence is the “super replica”. Higher prices will be an incentive to crank out more if this poisonous junk.


Sent from my cracked, broken hand wound phone. IG @morning_tundra
I'm curious why you would consider only unpolished watches to be "original"? Granted, BAD polishing is an atrocity, but to think that -any- type of polishing somehow destroys the "originality" of a watch seems snobbish to me. It's just steel, it can be refinished, rebuilt, and polished time and time again. Especially the older 4 digit SS sport watches which were much more of a working mans tool watch than what Rolex makes today, in my opinion.

The drive for the perfect unpolished watch is what is driving the recreation of a factory fresh finish. Of course that is often paired with a faded bezel, matching hands and dial patina, and a hint of tropical fading. Odd what makes a vintage watch hypercollectible.....
 

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I'm curious why you would consider only unpolished watches to be "original"? Granted, BAD polishing is an atrocity, but to think that -any- type of polishing somehow destroys the "originality" of a watch seems snobbish to me. It's just steel, it can be refinished, rebuilt, and polished time and time again. Especially the older 4 digit SS sport watches which were much more of a working mans tool watch than what Rolex makes today, in my opinion.

The drive for the perfect unpolished watch is what is driving the recreation of a factory fresh finish. Of course that is often paired with a faded bezel, matching hands and dial patina, and a hint of tropical fading. Odd what makes a vintage watch hypercollectible.....
Perhaps I should have used the term, "unmolested". I used the term "original" here to mean "as it left the factory".

To me, "refinish", "polish", "rebuilt" (including laser welding and service parts) falls into the bucket of "restoration". I'm not against these practices and own several with these characteristics. They are not however "original"

... curiously, I feel the same way about face lifts and breast enhancements. They have their charm. :)
 

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The vintage market is treacherous and no place for people who aren't experts. I'd rather buy new or recent.

Personally, I want no Rolex before the 5 digit references anyway.
It's definitely a huge risk. You can take a risk and get a bigger deal or pay a big premium for the sure thing from a reputable source.

I'd love to own a 5512 or 5513 but the prices are crazy and honestly it has become a rich man's fad these days which has shot up the price. I'd have picked one up for cheaper back in the day but I'm too young to have been able to afford one when the prices were reasonable.

Who knows where the prices will go. I'm sure an economic crash will bring down the prices a bit but then again if there is a crash would you be rushing to buy a watch? Who knows what'll happen 20+ years from now when smart watch technology really blossoms. If you really want the watch, then you might want to just go for it. You live one life and you might as well enjoy it.
 

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Perhaps I should have used the term, "unmolested". I used the term "original" here to mean "as it left the factory".

To me, "refinish", "polish", "rebuilt" (including laser welding and service parts) falls into the bucket of "restoration". I'm not against these practices and own several with these characteristics. They are not however "original"

... curiously, I feel the same way about face lifts and breast enhancements. They have their charm. :)
Fair enough :)

Though I find that resistance to "enhancement" or restoration directly proportional to how good the end result looks

Folks want a vintage watch with a low mileage case but a (tasteful) high mileage dial that exhudes an aura of experience with a whiff of factory freshness. That is a tricky combo (same with women!)
 

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Fair enough :)

Though I find that resistance to "enhancement" or restoration directly proportional to how good the end result looks

Folks want a vintage watch with a low mileage case but a (tasteful) high mileage dial that exhudes an aura of experience with a whiff of factory freshness. That is a tricky combo (same with women!)
I agree. And like most fads (and I believe this to be one) the pendulum is swinging too far with incongruous and often extreme results. IG is full of these.

What began as an overall, balanced Wabi-Sabi aesthetic (which I love) has turned into something a little freaky looking - the pert case of a teenager with the hands and dial of a grandma. The "Jane Fonda Submariner"...
 

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do you guys think that the 14060 will go the same path? as this is the last ref that will have dial patina due to the tritium?
Yes, but not because of patina or tritium. Because of birth year.

The 14060 is the last Sub that shipped with non-random serial numbers, the only way to tell the year of manufacture outside of having box and papers which so many Rolexes lack. It's surprising how many people throw out the box and papers and how few of them turn up.

My youngest son was born in 2012 and the only way I can get a certain 2012 14060 is to get one with box and papers. I've been looking for almost a year, none have surfaced.
 

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Perhaps I should have used the term, "unmolested". I used the term "original" here to mean "as it left the factory".


I'm in that camp. I like a vintage Rolex that looks like it did when it hit the showroom floor with just a hint of lume patina for flavor. Not only do these look very professional and correct but they also are significantly less than their all-original (aka practically eroded) counterparts.

And while I'm not in it for the money I have a hunch that once all the vintage dealers have exhausted all their passable inventory and what remains have dials and bezels so faded and pitted that no one in their right mind would buy them that the 'trend' will shift to what I've got- original 60's cases, original 60's movements, matching serial numbers/casebacks, and 80's period-correct matte service parts. 10, 20 years from now they'll be the only 1016's and 5513's that look good.
 

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do you guys think that the 14060 will go the same path? as this is the last ref that will have dial patina due to the tritium?
I can't see the other way. They are not made since 2012, model is desirable, prices already went up in last 2 years from ~4-5k to ~6,5-8k $ for decent example. Now you can buy used 114060 for the same price of good condition 14060. I don't think there is a way back, 5-digit GMT-Masters and Kermits are already high in the sky, Subs both date and no date are slowly increasing with only Explorers I/II staying still on reasonable level.
 
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