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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
I took a trip to my local Rolex AD for the first time today. The scene was exactly what I expected, zero models on display. I have my heart set on a 124270 Explorer. The store manager was super friendly and knowledgeable about watches, he spotted my Zenith El Primero from a mile away. We had a great 15 min chat and he told me to check back with him every month or two if I haven't been called yet. Also, he asked me if I wanted this hardcover 2020-2021 catalog for my coffee table. Pretty cool gift, even if I don't get a call for a long time, or ever. Explorer on the cover, good omen.
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I think you'll find Rolex watches get fairly easy to find in a year or two, the market is already starting to show signs of slowing, will we see another 2008? Maybe.

Either way, it was nice of him to give you the booklet, thats good salesmanship and I appreciate that. Sounds like a decent AD right there.

Best of luck with your search!
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
I think you'll find Rolex watches get fairly easy to find in a year or two, the market is already starting to show signs of slowing, will we see another 2008? Maybe.

Either way, it was nice of him to give you the booklet, thats good salesmanship and I appreciate that. Sounds like a decent AD right there.

Best of luck with your search!
Thanks! That's exactly why I'm not rushing into buying one for 40% more from the grey market.
 

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I think you'll find Rolex watches get fairly easy to find in a year or two, the market is already starting to show signs of slowing, will we see another 2008? Maybe.

Either way, it was nice of him to give you the booklet, thats good salesmanship and I appreciate that. Sounds like a decent AD right there.

Best of luck with your search!
What signs are those? Not being confrontational, genuinely curious.
 

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I’ve gone into 2 AD’s this year (for the first time in both cases) and had 2 very different experiences. The first one I went to had 0 interest in me at all - said that every Rolex they would get in was spoken for for then next 18 months, and even after I said I don’t mind waiting, he said they aren’t taking any new customers info. Keep in mind I was asking for for a Datejust, nothing crazy rare.

The second time was a lot like your experience. Chatted with the manager for a while, he took all of my info and was just straight with me that it would probably be a while. I left with the same hardcover brochure - really cool to have.

The second store actually had a blue dial Yacht Master 40mm in stock, and I stupidly did not purchase it. I just couldn’t pull the trigger on a $12k watch that wasn’t exactly what I wanted.
 

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I’d say just a very slight softening of the market on all but the most sought after Rolex’s.

But, we won’t see a full market correction until supply catches up with demand.


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Do you have any data points for this very slight softening?

I'm not seeing any reflection of this in pricing on WatchRecon or from greys (in fact, the prices are still rising), and watches for sale seem to be moving as they usually do.
 
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What signs are those? Not being confrontational, genuinely curious.
Resale/gray is unable to continuously push up prices, a wall was hit a couple of months ago with price increases that has created surplus stock and in some cases, actually produced price decreases.

Not to mention, governments aren't giving away free money anymore, and people are starting to travel again. The watch market entirely is slowing and I'm betting by mid to late next year we see a pretty heavy correction begin as people start to dump what they have as they see prices decrease. Once that snowball rolls the AD is going to "miraculously" have all we need, because their backroom buyers won't be sniffing around anymore.

I'm hedging all this on 25 years in this hobby, I've seen a lot of bubbles and lot of pops. Never seen a bubble quite like the pandemic one, which tells me we're either going to see a burst like never before... or we'll see a deflation where the bubble remains, but just not to the degree it has been.

It certainly does seem the notion of high end watch values growing endlessly isn't going to pay off though.
 

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Do you have any data points for this very slight softening?

I'm not seeing any reflection of this in pricing on WatchRecon or from greys (in fact, the prices are still rising), and watches for sale seem to be moving as they usually do.
I've been told the opposite, however! It is certainly watch specific and not market as a whole. Some models are still in high enough demand, others that were in high demand a year ago are not as in high a demand anymore. Some of that is the ebbs and flows, but a lot of that is the market.

All good times come to an end eventually, nothing that is produced in quantity will see value growth with no decline for the remainder of time.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
I’ve gone into 2 AD’s this year (for the first time in both cases) and had 2 very different experiences. The first one I went to had 0 interest in me at all - said that every Rolex they would get in was spoken for for then next 18 months, and even after I said I don’t mind waiting, he said they aren’t taking any new customers info. Keep in mind I was asking for for a Datejust, nothing crazy rare.

The second time was a lot like your experience. Chatted
Dude, just stop by every few weeks and say hi and make conversation. This was easy for me, as I visit the mall fairly regularly anyways and I love chatting about watches with anyone who will listen.
I'm definitely going to. The manager actually seemed to encourage that type of perseverance.
 

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I’d say just a very slight softening of the market on all but the most sought after Rolex’s.

But, we won’t see a full market correction until supply catches up with demand.


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The equation has two, not one, moving parts.
 
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I’ve gone into 2 AD’s this year (for the first time in both cases) and had 2 very different experiences. The first one I went to had 0 interest in me at all - said that every Rolex they would get in was spoken for for then next 18 months, and even after I said I don’t mind waiting, he said they aren’t taking any new customers info. Keep in mind I was asking for for a Datejust, nothing crazy rare.

The second time was a lot like your experience. Chatted with the manager for a while, he took all of my info and was just straight with me that it would probably be a while. I left with the same hardcover brochure - really cool to have.

The second store actually had a blue dial Yacht Master 40mm in stock, and I stupidly did not purchase it. I just couldn’t pull the trigger on a $12k watch that wasn’t exactly what I wanted.
Well, firstly, it is NOT stupid to pass on a watch that is not exactly what you want for $12,000. If there IS a specific watch you want, just get on their list (if they have one) and move on.

Secondly, both of the AD’s I have purchased from in the past are just tired of answering the phone or drop ins asking about a Rolex because they can’t provide reliable (or any) information on when a particular Rolex might be available for purchase. I don’t see any immediate softening in the market but at some point the bubble WILL burst. Good luck figuring out when!

My time is just too valuable to play the endless follow up game, so another new Rolex is not in my immediate future. Fortunately for me, the only Rolex I’m interested in is the Pepsi (I have others). I can wait. Otherwise, go grey and pay the premium; Datejusts haven’t gone through the roof like some others; when you factor in your time it’s close to a wash IMHO.

Heres a pic from one of my AD’s pre-Covid; it hasn’t improved…
 

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Dude, just stop by every few weeks and say hi and make conversation. This was easy for me, as I visit the mall fairly regularly anyways and I love chatting about watches with anyone who will listen.
Yeah that’s what I was planning on - the problem is the place that totally blew me off is around the corner and the place that I had a good experience is 90 mins away (I was in town for a wedding). Eventually I’ll probably just bite the bullet and hope I deal with someone better next time around.
 

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Well, firstly, it is NOT stupid to pass on a watch that is not exactly what you want for $12,000. If there IS a specific watch you want, just get on their list (if they have one) and move on.

Secondly, both of the AD’s I have purchased from in the past are just tired of answering the phone or drop ins asking about a Rolex because they can’t provide reliable (or any) information on when a particular Rolex might be available for purchase. I don’t see any immediate softening in the market but at some point the bubble WILL burst. Good luck figuring out when!

My time is just too valuable to play the endless follow up game, so another new Rolex is not in my immediate future. Fortunately for me, the only Rolex I’m interested in is the Pepsi (I have others). I can wait. Otherwise, go grey and pay the premium; Datejusts haven’t gone through the roof like some others; when you factor in your time it’s close to a wash IMHO.
All true. My goal was to just get in a list and hopefully get a call whether it’s tomorrow or a year from now. There are a ton of other brands that I like that will keep me busy in the meantime.
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·

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I’d say just a very slight softening of the market on all but the most sought after Rolex’s.

But, we won’t see a full market correction until supply catches up with demand.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Resale/gray is unable to continuously push up prices, a wall was hit a couple of months ago with price increases that has created surplus stock and in some cases, actually produced price decreases.

Not to mention, governments aren't giving away free money anymore, and people are starting to travel again. The watch market entirely is slowing and I'm betting by mid to late next year we see a pretty heavy correction begin as people start to dump what they have as they see prices decrease. Once that snowball rolls the AD is going to "miraculously" have all we need, because their backroom buyers won't be sniffing around anymore.

I'm hedging all this on 25 years in this hobby, I've seen a lot of bubbles and lot of pops. Never seen a bubble quite like the pandemic one, which tells me we're either going to see a burst like never before... or we'll see a deflation where the bubble remains, but just not to the degree it has been.

It certainly does seem the notion of high end watch values growing endlessly isn't going to pay off though.
I guess I haven’t noticed any change because I’ve only been watching the Batgirl. It seemed to plateau for a minute, and now the average price is back on an uptrend. I definitely agree that what we are seeing right now is a bubble driven by hype and that it cannot last, and apparently Rolex agrees considering their refusal to increase supply or jack up prices. I just don’t know at what point it will all come crashing down. With them growing increasingly popular in China, I can see inflated secondhand prices and short stock continuing for some time but maybe not to the degree we see currently.
 
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