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All I can say is a few months back I sold my OP39 for more money to a dealer than a reseller can now get for one now. The OP Rolexes seem to be getting soft on price grey market and that includes the new OP. I am seeing stock on the grey market sitting longer when I visit big name re-sellers online.
 

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I guess I haven’t noticed any change because I’ve only been watching the Batgirl. It seemed to plateau for a minute, and now the average price is back on an uptrend. I definitely agree that what we are seeing right now is a bubble driven by hype and that it cannot last, and apparently Rolex agrees considering their refusal to increase supply or jack up prices. I just don’t know at what point it will all come crashing down. With them growing increasingly popular in China, I can see inflated secondhand prices and short stock continuing for some time but maybe not to the degree we see currently.
Yeah, that's the thing.
People are saying it's a bubble using a frame of reference from 15-20 years ago.
China has risen since the 2008 crisis and there are a lot of cashed up mainland Chinese that are now basically the biggest market for luxury goods that would have been absolutely impossible for them to get even 30 years ago. I'm not convinced that any bubble burst on Rolex is going back to the old days when you actually had to sell a used SS sports model for below MSRP because, you know, it was a used watch.
 
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I think you'll find Rolex watches get fairly easy to find in a year or two, the market is already starting to show signs of slowing, will we see another 2008? Maybe.
You think so? I'm in Canada, and if I am not mistaken, people up here were asking $27k for Hulks about two months ago on a Facebook buy/sell group, now they're over $40k and still selling. Plain black date Subs were $19k and now in the $21k range. Crazy times.
 

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Discussion Starter · #24 ·
I guess I haven’t noticed any change because I’ve only been watching the Batgirl. It seemed to plateau for a minute, and now the average price is back on an uptrend. I definitely agree that what we are seeing right now is a bubble driven by hype and that it cannot last, and apparently Rolex agrees considering their refusal to increase supply or jack up prices. I just don’t know at what point it will all come crashing down. With them growing increasingly popular in China, I can see inflated secondhand prices and short stock continuing for some time but maybe not to the degree we see currently.
Resale/gray is unable to continuously push up prices, a wall was hit a couple of months ago with price increases that has created surplus stock and in some cases, actually produced price decreases.

Not to mention, governments aren't giving away free money anymore, and people are starting to travel again. The watch market entirely is slowing and I'm betting by mid to late next year we see a pretty heavy correction begin as people start to dump what they have as they see prices decrease. Once that snowball rolls the AD is going to "miraculously" have all we need, because their backroom buyers won't be sniffing around anymore.

I'm hedging all this on 25 years in this hobby, I've seen a lot of bubbles and lot of pops. Never seen a bubble quite like the pandemic one, which tells me we're either going to see a burst like never before... or we'll see a deflation where the bubble remains, but just not to the degree it has been.

It certainly does seem the notion of high end watch values growing endlessly isn't going to pay off though.
I agree with you on all your points except for the free money part. I believe the people buying a Rolex aren't using money from government stimulus checks, its that their assets like property, stocks and crypto are still doing well.
 

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Yeah, that's the thing.
People are saying it's a bubble using a frame of reference from 15-20 years ago.
China has risen since the 2008 crisis and there are a lot of cashed up mainland Chinese that are now basically the biggest market for luxury goods that would have been absolutely impossible for them to get even 30 years ago. I'm not convinced that any bubble burst on Rolex is going back to the old days when you actually had to sell a used SS sports model for below MSRP because, you know, it was a used watch.
As we talk through this, I think I can see Rolex addressing the supply issue once they have a good feel for what the new normal is for demand. They have to let this Instagram/pandemic/feedback-loop hype die down, and then they can increase supply accordingly. They may not flood the ADs with pieces, but they will become a lot easier to find and secondhand prices will drop significantly. We shall see, though.
 

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The Instagram hype will not die down. People in other countries that are developing will start to gain more wealth to afford luxury watches. People are buying Rolex watches as an alternative vehicle for stashing funds other than bonds/CDs.

If I was Rolex CEO, I wouldn't do a thing to change; threads like this constantly feed into the fact that Rolex is in high demand. A watch sold is a watch sold, be it to grey market, consumers, whatever.
 

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The Instagram hype will not die down. People in other countries that are developing will start to gain more wealth to afford luxury watches. People are buying Rolex watches as an alternative vehicle for stashing funds other than bonds/CDs.

If I was Rolex CEO, I wouldn't do a thing to change; threads like this constantly feed into the fact that Rolex is in high demand. A watch sold is a watch sold, be it to grey market, consumers, whatever.
Well that’s the thing… If Rolex expected that this current hype and level of demand were to continue in perpetuity, they should increase supply and/or significantly increase prices. The fact that they aren’t doing either seems to indicate that they expect it won’t last. Hype and developing markets are two different things. They have to let the hype die down so that they can form a more realistic expectation of long-term demand and then act accordingly.
 

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I was traveling last week in FL and stopped by an AD. Lots of nice stuff in the case. Batman, 36mm Explorer, Oysterflex Daytona, etc. Of course display models only. The sales person was very helpful and after some small talk I asked, 'okay where's the stuff that's actually for sale?' After an awkward pause, he responded 'unfortunately, sir, there's nothing for sale today'. 'What? Nothing at all? No ladies watches? Two tone? Nothing at all?' 'Uhhhh. no sir, unfortunately everything is sold out today but I'd be happy to take your information and call you if anything becomes available'. 'Wow...can I ask how long it's been like this?' 'Well, we had a little inventory up until a few weeks ago,but it's been dry since then and we're only delivering orders for people on our list'.

I travel quite a bit, and make a regular habit of stopping by ADs. The situation's never good, but I've never seen anything like this.
 
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What signs are those? Not being confrontational, genuinely curious.
Inflation and economic depression on major markets. Though It will increase price of watches it will reduce buying potential of broader numbers of customers so there is slight potential of increased supply. Not sure will it make Rolex more available like it used to be in a long run. Unless people really will stop spending on them. Situation in general... It will be bad for anyone who lives off the salary while money been printed at crazy speed. Problem with high sticker price items is their price. Smaller are more convenient to sell while rolex asking price asks for stable currency to make transaction more attractive. There is no point in having cube track of worthless paper which getting cheaper as you dive home.
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I’ve gone into 2 AD’s this year (for the first time in both cases) and had 2 very different experiences. The first one I went to had 0 interest in me at all - said that every Rolex they would get in was spoken for for then next 18 months, and even after I said I don’t mind waiting, he said they aren’t taking any new customers info. Keep in mind I was asking for for a Datejust, nothing crazy rare.

The second time was a lot like your experience. Chatted with the manager for a while, he took all of my info and was just straight with me that it would probably be a while. I left with the same hardcover brochure - really cool to have.

The second store actually had a blue dial Yacht Master 40mm in stock, and I stupidly did not purchase it. I just couldn’t pull the trigger on a $12k watch that wasn’t exactly what I wanted.
Personally, I think you did the right thing. Nobody should feel obliged into parting with that much money on something you don't exactly want!
 
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I'm definitely going to. The manager actually seemed to encourage that type of perseverance.
It works! I was able to get a couple watches like this and it didnt take any "work" on my end. I stop by the mall regularly because i'm obsessed with this Swedish chocolate store 😅and I'd stop by the AD and just talk about watches, get their theory on what was going on, asked them how often people asked about certain watches, and just show them pictures of limited editions from other brands, stuff I liked, etc....just normal watch geek talk.

Granted this was before the crazy market where everyone and their mom became a stock/crypto billionaire, but I was still able to get my hands on a number of exclusive watches...watches that were exclusive before the recent empty stock. I never had to purchase a single watch I didnt want either, etc.

Maybe all of it was luck, and I just showed up right when they got new stock in, who knows. I didn't find it an unpleasant experience in the least.

I will say I did go gray market for my most recent purchase (Rolex Pepsi on Jubilee) because I didnt wanna wait, but my theory is that the Explorer wouldn't require any more than that just stopping in. Good luck!
 

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I think you'll find Rolex watches get fairly easy to find in a year or two, the market is already starting to show signs of slowing, will we see another 2008? Maybe.

Either way, it was nice of him to give you the booklet, thats good salesmanship and I appreciate that. Sounds like a decent AD right there.

Best of luck with your search!
I’ve had my eye on a. Few minutes arches (non Rolex) and noticed prices finally starting to level off if not dropping. Too soon to say I’d it’s people just trying to clear inventory for the end of the year or it’s a sustainable thing but I’m starting to believe this.
 

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Discussion Starter · #34 ·
It works! I was able to get a couple watches like this and it didnt take any "work" on my end. I stop by the mall regularly because i'm obsessed with this Swedish chocolate store 😅and I'd stop by the AD and just talk about watches, get their theory on what was going on, asked them how often people asked about certain watches, and just show them pictures of limited editions from other brands, stuff I liked, etc....just normal watch geek talk.

Granted this was before the crazy market where everyone and their mom became a stock/crypto billionaire, but I was still able to get my hands on a number of exclusive watches...watches that were exclusive before the recent empty stock. I never had to purchase a single watch I didnt want either, etc.

Maybe all of it was luck, and I just showed up right when they got new stock in, who knows. I didn't find it an unpleasant experience in the least.

I will say I did go gray market for my most recent purchase (Rolex Pepsi on Jubilee) because I didnt wanna wait, but my theory is that the Explorer wouldn't require any more than that just stopping in. Good luck!
Thanks for the story! This whole game we have to play is rediculous but if I can get the watch at the AD price then its very much worth it. Like you said, it doesn't have to be much work, I'll just pop in once a month and talk watches, which the manager seems to enjoy anyway.
 

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Dude, just stop by every few weeks and say hi and make conversation. This was easy for me, as I visit the mall fairly regularly anyways and I love chatting about watches with anyone who will listen.
Watch salesman don’t have to know a watch from a potato. They could probably care less about talking watches for the most part. They are there to make a number, that’s it.
 

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Watch salesman don’t have to know a watch from a potato. They could probably care less about talking watches for the most part. They are there to make a number, that’s it.
Fair, maybe I got lucky with my AD. They seemed to enjoy chatting with me about them. 🤷‍♂️
 

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I had an AD in LA sell three Rolex to myself and a friend in Jan this year- in a single transaction upon arrival of a shipment- but we sweetened the store owner by buying other jewelry from her. A method my friend has used to great effect previously- we're talking about a guy with a zenith Daytona mind you so I'm not sure I could pull the same on my own.
In the end we made out well because the gap between AD and grey prices was greater than the cost of a ring for his wife and gold chain for myself.
I'm not sure this works everywhere or for everyone but may be worth a try.
 

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I think that was absolutely right decision, and not stupid at all.

The second store actually had a blue dial Yacht Master 40mm in stock, and I stupidly did not purchase it. I just couldn’t pull the trigger on a $12k watch that wasn’t exactly what I wanted.
 

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You think so? I'm in Canada, and if I am not mistaken, people up here were asking $27k for Hulks about two months ago on a Facebook buy/sell group, now they're over $40k and still selling. Plain black date Subs were $19k and now in the $21k range. Crazy times.
I’m in Canada too…west coast. Seeing similar numbers. Absolutely unbelievable.
 
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