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The Instagram hype will not die down. People in other countries that are developing will start to gain more wealth to afford luxury watches. People are buying Rolex watches as an alternative vehicle for stashing funds other than bonds/CDs.

If I was Rolex CEO, I wouldn't do a thing to change; threads like this constantly feed into the fact that Rolex is in high demand. A watch sold is a watch sold, be it to grey market, consumers, whatever.
Yup. The idea that Rolex is a "watch" is now quaintly old-fashioned. It's an easy value store for a diversified investment portfolio that's also good for sheltering from the taxman. China alone produces enough new millionaires every year to buy up the whole of Rolex's annual output. They emerge blinking into the light, go onto social media to find out what product to buy.

And only one name pops up.

Let's see what the big-standard £9,000 Daytona '500 at the Philips auction (in HK, where else?) goes for, tomorrow and Saturday.
 

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I took a trip to my local Rolex AD for the first time today. The scene was exactly what I expected, zero models on display. I have my heart set on a 124270 Explorer. The store manager was super friendly and knowledgeable about watches, he spotted my Zenith El Primero from a mile away. We had a great 15 min chat and he told me to check back with him every month or two if I haven't been called yet. Also, he asked me if I wanted this hardcover 2020-2021 catalog for my coffee table. Pretty cool gift, even if I don't get a call for a long time, or ever. Explorer on the cover, good omen. View attachment 16258564
By the sound of it, you're in with a decent chance of getting your watch. I spend quite a bit of time in my AD and know them quite well and you're the sort of customer they prefer (apart from their existing customers of course). A huge proportion of their working hours are spent defusing walk in customers that have seen the Rolex Logo above the door and "pop in for a Submariner". They also get hundreds of flippers trying their luck as well, usually identified by a list of model numbers within a few seconds of getting past the door. Theres a fine line between knowing what youre doing and looking like a trader. I regularly pop in for a chat and spend about half an hour in there. During that time the phone will ring 4 or 5 times with Rolex requests. The in store visits are also awkward as theyre the only Rolex seller in the area so people travel to the store expecting full cabinets "youre an official stockist arent you? why cant I just buy one, can you order one then?". Its got that bad.

My ad has a reputation for being a bit snooty and they can be quite rude to people they suspect are trying it on so they have to apply heavy filters to customers requesting Rolex watches. Its all they can do and its bound to upset a lot of people on the way and they also have a good chance of losing customers. A friend of mine who has a Patek among others practically got thrown out of the shop and he said it was the worst store hes been into. I shuffle in wearing shorts and flip flops and theyre always really good to me so it shows the relationship is everything. Your El primero probably helped as well. They prefer to sell to watch enthusiasts as theyre more likely to keep buying as opposed to people celebrating a 50th birthday (submariner😁). Best of luck.
 

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Discussion Starter · #49 ·
Oh come on! You got a catalog, you didn't even get a Rolex magazine out of it? I think there's issue 9 is out.
I honestly didn't even know the catalogs were free, just thought it was a nice gesture even if they give them to everyone. I guess I should have asked for a magazine.
 

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Resale/gray is unable to continuously push up prices, a wall was hit a couple of months ago with price increases that has created surplus stock and in some cases, actually produced price decreases.

Not to mention, governments aren't giving away free money anymore, and people are starting to travel again. The watch market entirely is slowing and I'm betting by mid to late next year we see a pretty heavy correction begin as people start to dump what they have as they see prices decrease. Once that snowball rolls the AD is going to "miraculously" have all we need, because their backroom buyers won't be sniffing around anymore.

I'm hedging all this on 25 years in this hobby, I've seen a lot of bubbles and lot of pops. Never seen a bubble quite like the pandemic one, which tells me we're either going to see a burst like never before... or we'll see a deflation where the bubble remains, but just not to the degree it has been.

It certainly does seem the notion of high end watch values growing endlessly isn't going to pay off though.
We will be seeing a huge depression coming soon. The bubble is much larger than the 2007/2008 bubble. There will be bargains coming in the next 12 to 24 months. We have another 3 years left for the economy to get destroyed even further. Enjoy the show.🤣🤣
 

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We’ve all been waiting so long for the Rolex bubble to burst, not sure it ever will.
 
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Discussion Starter · #52 ·
We will be seeing a huge depression coming soon. The bubble is much larger than the 2007/2008 bubble. There will be bargains coming in the next 12 to 24 months. We have another 3 years left for the economy to get destroyed even further. Enjoy the show.🤣🤣
A lot of people wouldn't be destroyed at all from a 50% drop in assets and stocks they are so far up. The sp500 has had its best year ever.
 

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A lot of people wouldn't be destroyed at all from a 50% drop in assets and stocks they are so far up. The sp500 has had its best year ever.
Most people would lose the value of their IRA’s and retirement funds. Don’t underestimate how many people will lose their pants if the stock market tanks. The market is overvalued and the government has done nothing but feed the economy with fiat money that’s not backed up by anything. This and 3 more years left of destroying the economy will cause a huge financial crisis. A huge correction will occur whether or not you like hearing it.
 

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Discussion Starter · #57 · (Edited)
Most people would lose the value of their IRA’s and retirement funds. Don’t underestimate how many people will lose their pants if the stock market tanks. The market is overvalued and the government has done nothing but feed the economy with fiat money that’s not backed up by anything. This and 3 more years left of destroying the economy will cause a huge financial crisis. A huge correction will occur whether or not you like hearing it.
Of course that could happen, or it doesn't. Printing more money doesn't inspire people to cash out, and pay taxes on gains when switching to cash which loses value over time. In these conditions hard assets do well. I dont mind hearing it at all, whatever happens, so be it.
 

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Good luck man, I’m on “the list” as well for a a 41mm Sub and any GMT available so we’ll see what happens! To get anything at retail would feel almost like hitting the lotto at this point lol
 

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Discussion Starter · #59 ·
Good luck man, I’m on “the list” as well for a a 41mm Sub and any GMT available so we’ll see what happens! To get anything at retail would feel almost like hitting the lotto at this point lol
Thank you, and good luck to you as well! It definitely feels like paying msrp at an AD would be like winning the lottery with slightly better odds. Im not desperate for the watch though, and don't mind waiting a very long time for a good price for 100% new and complete. I would never feel totally safe buying a Rolex from anyone but an AD.
 
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