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Bold prediction- within two years, Swatch will be gone (or almost)

15K views 214 replies 110 participants last post by  dalstott  
#1 ·
All this hype led me to thinking about how Swatch must be struggling. I deal with teenagers and young adults a lot. In fact, I work an an exam center where watches must be taken off before the exam so I see everyone's watches. Or to put it more accurately, I see the fact that virtually zero teens and young adults wear watches. Maybe one out of 15 wears a fit-bit type watch and occasionally, very occasionally, a girl will wear a gold Casio A168 or that type of digital Casio. I have never seen ANYONE wear a Swatch. The store here in Madrid is dead (until Saturday but I'm sure it's dead again now). They had a tiny bit of (in my opinion undeserved) hype among watch geeks about the Sistem 51 which quickly faded. Don't get me wrong, I look at their offerings from time to time and I appreciate their creativity but do I buy anything? No. In fact, if I wanted one, I would go to Wallapop (used item marketplace in Europe) and buy one for a third of retail...or less. Even though retro 80s is kinda in right now, Swatch isn't cheap enough for a young person to buy just for fun (unlike Casio). Probably 90% of Swatches sales are to people who are desperate for a last minute gift and are like, "he likes watches, and there's a Swatch store right here in the airport, let's just get him that and be done with it." Swatch is probably furiously poring over their sales from this weekend- once the Moonswatches sold out, did anyone buy anything else? The stores are in high dollar locations, if there is no follow through from the hype, I bet a lot of them will be on the chopping block. Moonswatch aside, when was the last time you saw a Swatch in the wild? Who buys them? Are they big in Asia? I want a MoonSwatch or two but I would not be surprised if this is the last gasp from a waning brand.
 
#3 ·
I'd venture to guess Swatch is a regional thing, or somewhat age bracket oriented. I hardly see anyone wearing a Swatch out here on the Plains. But I'd venture to guess they are getting by fine without us. Then there is the ridiculous portfolio they oversee.

But then GM had to be fiscally crutched by the Gubbermint too. So who knows.
 
#8 ·
Wait a sec...you said none of the kids (maybe one out of 15) wear watches, an odd fitbit but that's it, 0 teens or young adults wear watches. Okay but the question I have is....why did you single out swatch as being irrelevant in one is two years or so?

You said 0 teens/young adults are wearing watches so wouldn't the better observation be that all watch companies will disappear in a few years? Why did you choose only Swatch? I mean clearly, based on your extensive polling and sampling watches in general have disappeared (well except maybe for a fitbit here or there) but yet you only feel that Swatch is the dinosaur headed for extinction (or...think about it....headed for...Distinction?!!??!!)

So anyway yeah, no I think your conclusion is based on resentment of some kind towards Swatch but confoundingly at the end of your statement you conclude that you will buy a mooswatch so even you don't seem to be sure what you're thinking is
 
#10 ·
Wait a sec...you said none of the kids (maybe one out of 15) wear watches, an odd fitbit but that's it, 0 teens or young adults wear watches. Okay but the question I have is....why did you single out swatch as being irrelevant in one is two years or so?

You said 0 teens/young adults are wearing watches so wouldn't the better observation be that all watch companies will disappear in a few years? Why did you choose only Swatch? I mean clearly, based on your extensive polling and sampling watches in general have disappeared (well except maybe for a fitbit here or there) but yet you only feel that Swatch is the dinosaur headed for extinction (or...think about it....headed for...Distinction?!!??!!)

So anyway yeah, no I think your conclusion is based on resentment of some kind towards Swatch but confoundingly at the end of your statement you conclude that you will buy a mooswatch so even you don't seem to be sure what you're thinking is
Well I don't think Swatch is alone- Fossil has been struggling too. I single out Swatch because it seems like Swatch is aimed at the younger demographic yet I don't see that demographic buying them or wearing them. I'm also talking about Swatch because it has been on the radar these days. And yes, as a watch geek myself, I think the MoonSwatches are cool and I want one. But before the recent hype and after it dies down, who is buying Swatches? That's just what I'm wondering. And all you guys jumping in to defend Swatch...when was the last time you bought a Swatch? When was the last time you saw a Swatch?
 
#21 ·
I know, I know...they are very popular in India...

Why do so many end up in the gray market? Why is there virtually no buzz about Rado on these forums? Or on Youtube? When was the last time you saw a shiny black ceramic Rado on someone's wrist. In the display case at Corte Ingles (like Macy's) in the center of Madrid I saw a quartz Rado skipping seconds- it had been in the case so long the battery was running out.
 
#13 ·
They're such a "waning brand" that their parent company is going to dump more money into increasing production capacity...

"Swatch very successfully launched the new bioplastic and bioceramic models to the market, and will continuously increase production capacity in the next months."

 
#17 ·
Where I live, a FlikFlak (which is basically a Swatch for kids) is still extremely popular among kids who enter school age.

My wife got a Swatch when she just needed a watch for a new job (where using her phone was not an option). It seemed like a natural choice for her, and at $50, what could go wrong?

I still see them in the wild quite often, with that tell-tale lug design. Since the brand is carried by the larger homonymous group, I think your prediction is unlikely to come true.

[sets reminder for 2 years from now]
 
#20 · (Edited)
There's a lot of products I don't see in the wild made by successful companies. It doesn't mean they don't exist. The world is big and there are many bubbles. It's so big that a small niche can be worth billions of dollars. The number of companies that make good money that you are completely unaware of would blow your mind. A successful company doesn't have to be on the scale of Apple or Disney.

For them to have many boutiques in expensive areas, and sell hundreds of thousands of units, it would be a legendary decline for them to not exist in two years. Perhaps theyvare in decline, but basing it on not seeing them in the wild, and giving a timeframe of two years, is very bold indeed.
 
#30 ·
At a drug store that I shop at frequently, I see a rack of affordable watches (~$10-20 each?). I think it's not even a well known brand. Who buys those watches, given that nowadays many people don't even wear a watch? But the rack of watches being there suggests to me there's a market for them, as surprising as it might be to me.
 
#35 ·
I think it's regional. I know the Houston store does brisk business, and has a pretty solid relationship with a number of established collectors in the area. I've heard others say their local Swatch store is dead, and they even shut down in LA. In the last decade or so, the Swatch collecting community has an extremely solid core that's been active for years, which Swatch fosters with their assorted clubs. I'm not saying that's going to sustain the whole company, but just saying it seems like there are hot pockets of activity and dead zones elsewhere. I think Swatch Group had expectations of Swatches level of sales properly managed and sustainable...

...until that was all kind of thrown out the window this past weekend, and it's a whole new ballgame.
 
#43 ·
Overall, I think it's worth exploring whether or not watches will be a part of the analogue resurgence with younger people, similar to vinyl, tactile toys, books, etc.

There's certainly been a shift away from the need to wear a watch, and while it can be argued this movement has been offset by more of a focus on watches being jewelry and fashion, I don't know if that's the main appeal (it's part of it, sure) that draws most people in, at least on this forum. Appreciation for the design and engineering, along with the tangibility, is what grabs my interest. I'm certainly not alone, nor is this some great previously undiscovered insight. I'm pointing it out because with Swatch, you can't really hang your hat on this, considering they've always been style over substance.

With that being said, I don't think we can count them out. The masses are fickle, but malleable and easily influenced. Swatch needs to lean into "What's old is new, what's outdated is cool." What that looks like, I don't know. I'm not a marketer. I have a soul. This could happen organically, too - some influencer, right place, right time - is wearing a Swatch, it's noted, and the interest skyrockets. Suddenly people are buying as many different styles as they can - one for each unique outfit the person owns - and things are okay until those people grow up. I do think there's value in the affordability, access, and flexibility Swatch offers. This is easy to leverage. It's getting the attention of a distracted society that's difficult.
 
#52 ·
Swatch will probably not increase in popularity (maybe it will after this whole moonswatch thing!) but it won't vanish either. Life will go on!
 
#56 · (Edited)
People have been banging on and on about the demise of wrist watches and the ultimate failure of, well, any major brand you can think of for decades now. Yet the wearing of watches continues unabated and the supposedly imperiled companies cited continue to operate just fine.

Swatch isn’t going anywhere and plenty of people will continue to wear watches no matter what smart phone they happen to own. Can we let this boring subject die once and for all?
 
#66 ·
my friend has a swatch, got it the other day, cant add more to this thread....bye
 
#68 ·
OP, I'm sorry that so many people are not responding to what you actually said.

I get what you are saying in that Swatch is the low cost - high volume brand in the behemoth that is the Swatch Group. I never see swatches either (I'm in California) but I do see a lot of Casios and Apple watches. I feel like Casio owns the market that the Swatch brand used to dominate. It would be interesting to know which brands are the most profitable.

I would probably own more Swatches if they changed the proprietary lugs.
 
#70 ·
Off Topic:

Why do you make them take their analogue watches off? I'm a retired High School teacher and administrator. I have proctored many years of SAT and ACT tests and have run these tests for five hundred students at a time. We used to make them bag their cellphones; smart watches weren't around then. Unless they had a digital watch with a calculator, we encouraged them to wear an analogue watch to be able to pace themselves. I developed tutoring programs and test-taking strategies, i.e., Executive Function or Metacognitive strategies that were adopted by other schools and tutors. Part of the dogma is always wearing a watch so you can pace yourself, which is part of a self-monitoring/self-evaluating strategy to ensure they allot enough time, but not too much time on the different sections of the test.

Simply curious as to why your system seems to be doing it differently.
 
#75 ·
It's a new rule. I think they are afraid that people will hide a recording device of some sort in the watch. It seems a bit extreme but I think they just thought, "let's just ban them all and not have to worry about it." It's an international exam and theoretically someone could record the exam and send it to someone else in a different time zone. Our rooms are required to have clocks on the wall for all to see in any event so they really don't need them. Plus we would always have someone's little casio beeping in the middle of the exam even though they swore it wouldn't make any noise at the beginning.