Rolex are rare in the same way diamonds are rare… in that they aren't.

What's rare is an honest authorized dealer who will sell watches to people. But the watches themselves are plentiful.

 

ADs, sell to the grays. That’s why the ADs have nothing to sell, but the grays have anything you want. Rolex VIPs are flippers.

 

In your example pic, it appears that Chrono 24 has >20k Rolex watches from various sellers globally, not necessarily they as one grey market dealer having that quantity.

 

Thank you for pointing that out. This helps.

 

20,000 out of 1,000,000 produced is 2%. Meaning 98% of the watches are not recirculated.

Blame yourself for not buying before everyone want one for themselves. You have a hard time justifying a watch over $1,000, so that means you are not a customer, not even a potential customer.

 

ah you beat me to the math. totally agree with you

 

Dear God, amen.

 

I don't think 20k is a lot for grey market. Rolex makes 1M watches a year. C24 lists brand new 20k watches, which i assume represents not just current year but all years. So let's just assume it is just one year....20k/1M = 2%. Clearly at least 98% of AD customers are buying and wearing/saving/keeping in safe and not selling to grey. A lot of people are getting watches.

For arguments sake let's just double the grey market - still under 5% hitting grey market.

Demand just outstrips supply. My AD indicated to me that they get ~20 panda daytonas a year. the "list" is 400 deep. When the OP41 tiffany dial was still available, they got 10 of them, but over 700 people asked for it.

 

Must be a pretty big AD to get that many tiffany OP41 and Daytonas.

 

As of this writing, I understand that Rolex ADs have very low inventory and sell to selective faithful customers only.

The part I underlined is BS, they have inventory, they just don't want to sell to one time buyers for as long as they can keep fleecing people. I don't mean to sound like a jerk but it's not hard to figure out. Demand for this brand is very, very high now. Why would an AD sell you that 126000 when they can sell it to someone else who will spend an extra $5,000 - $10,000 on other watch brands and/or jewelry in order to get that 126000? That's all there is to it.

Some Rolex watches go directly to end customers while others go to grey dealers but those greys also buy a lot of other brands at discount in order to get Rolex, think big six figure deals each time. Grey dealer margins reselling the other brands are slimmer but the Rolex profits make up for it.

 

I think the problem is from buyer, for some people Rolex will be an ideal tool of financial management. so they buy it, sell it, buy it, sell it... it will be cycle. AD will not put those buyers to blacklist until the hold the evidence.
Real watch collector will hold some rolex as a part of their collection, when they feel bored, rolex could be sold as same as other brands in their collection, it is just a watch brands to these people, nothing special.
For more people who wants one piece of watch in their lifetime and have no enough knowledge about watch (Rolex will be the top to publics view on watch brands ) Rolex will not be sold and possibly will be a legacy to their child or relatives

 

for the people who in this thread that are equating the amount of Rolex listings on Chrono24 which are listed as "new/unworn" and "in stock," and equating that to some kind of indicator of global Rolex availability:

A more interesting discussion may be that of the approximately 550,000 listings on Chrono24, 94,000 of them are Rolex, or approximately 17%. Which, when compared to all other brands and models, seems like a rather large percentage. In comparison, Omega makes up roughly 8%. Seiko and Casio listings are about 4%, respectively.

 

That is indeed interesting, I sometimes browse Chrono24 but hadn't really registered the relative numbers between brands....

 

Grey dealers get watches from?


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Grey dealers get watches from?


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Flippers. The 2 out of every 100 Rolex sold.

 

Oh god, not another attempt of shortage analysis bs…

 

Friday’s the end of the month and we have to meet our quota.

 

 

Great Caeser's Ghost! My AD told me last week that they had 1 ladies DJ available. They have no reason to lie to me about their stock or lack thereof. I have spent well into the 6 figures with them over the last 20 years. I am not the only such person, but they would readily sell me any Rolex I wanted if they had it.

There are plenty of such vetted customers who aren't flippers and I am sure they would rather have the profit than the stock.

 

I very much doubt what your AD told you. And six figures doesn’t make you a particularly big customer. You would be surprised what your “competition” is with some ADs.and how many good and vetted customers are already on their waiting lists ahead of you.

 

I live in Dubai, we have a gazillion of grey dealers, hundreds of them and some have incredible stock (and turnover). Of them maybe 10% are even on Chrono24 and of these who are, some don’t even list Rolex, AP, Patek as they sell them easily without giving commission to C24 and prices change too fast for them to bother updating their listings.

Listing all listings on one German platform is not representative at all. It’s barely the tip of the iceberg.

 

 

Well - I'm glad everything is cleared up now.

 

AD (or specifically, their attitude) is not the problem, or "root of the problem". It is a fruit of the problem.

AD is like the armored guard of a medieval city. Back when it was just a generic trade post, you were free to go in, stay, buy/sell, whatever. Feel free to hang around. It's all good for business.

Now imagine the trade post gradually got very successful through great trades and geographical advantages to goods, now everybody wants to go in but never come out. Stock is consistently gone whenever listed out so they never worry about the business part anymore.

How do you think the guards will treat that long line outside the gate?

 

I can’t imagine that AD’s have empty windows by choice 🤔

Having run a shop for many years, my worst nightmare ever would have been “Display only” labels on stuff in the window 🙄

Lets see how many times in a week I can say “Sorry no, they are not for sale”

That must get really tedious after the 1000th time.

So therefore the shortages come from shortages further up the chain IMO, but how they select the customer who can buy a watch is definetly down to the AD’s, and that is where my issues lie.

 

I can’t imagine that AD’s have empty windows by choice [emoji848]

Having run a shop for many years, my worst nightmare ever would have been “Display only” labels on stuff in the window [emoji849]

Lets see how many times in a week I can say “Sorry no, they are not for sale”

That must get really tedious after the 1000th time.

So therefore the shortages come from shortages further up the chain IMO, but how they select the customer who can buy a watch is definetly down to the AD’s, and that is where my issues lie.

The people making the decisions are not the ones saying "not for sale". Also as far as having empty spaces on shelves doesn't matter if you're selling to the public or you're getting sales another way.


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Those numbers from Chrono 24 had me wondering, out of 20k, how many are popular models vs gold, ladies, cellini etc? From a quick glance it could be 40% steel sports models so less than half are actually in high demand. A lot of listings could be people off-loading the diamond datejust they bought "to build a relationship". And what about fakes - how good is C24's authentication? Just me rambling.

 

I have been trying to understand the Rolex shortage topic that has polarized a lot of watch enthusiasts. When i first looked at prices of Rolexes, I was a student who has just got his first job. A brand new Datejust in an AD was $2200, and back then, it was a lot of money. I couldn't afford it. Years have gone by and I have saved enough to buy one, but still have a hard time to justify any mechanical watch that's over $1000 (as I have other expensive hobbies). I have always like simple dials, it might not be very popular here, but I do like the simplicity of the black Oyster Perpetual 126000, no date, no chronograph, no cyclop, just telling time. I like it, but don't like it enough to be willing to pay above list price, and to be willing "to build a relationship with the ADs" by buying a bunch of other watches.

I have gathered some info by reading threads at WUS and some explanation on youtube. Lots of different opinions:

• Many people point fingers to Rolex ADs being snobs.
• Others get frustrated with ADs games of waiting list.
• Some point out that Rolex mass-produces their watches ... about 1 million units per year.
• etc, etc.

As of this writing, I understand that Rolex ADs have very low inventory and sell to selective faithful customers only.

In trying to understand the shortage, I browse some online grey-market dealers and find that they have plenty of inventory. There's no shortage it seems. For instance, as shown in a screenshot below, one of the many grey-market dealers has over 20,000 Rolexes (brand new) in stock. That's how I came to the question of this thread. So, while there's a lot of anger and frustration against Rolex ADs, is it their fault ? How some grey-market dealers manage to build up such a large inventory ? Or is it the ADs' fault for somehow "leaking" Rolexes to the grey-market ? If so, wouldn't they lose their status as Rolex AD ?

View attachment 17584025

I've found this to be the case for San Marzano tomatoes

 

EVERYTHING is the AD's fault! If they don't like the 'look' of you, you do without!

 

There is no "list" at my AD, at least not a formal one. People express their interest in a certain piece. When one arrives, since they don't have any in stock, the SA's meet with the owner who makes the call on who gets the watch. I completely believe they have none in stock. If they had, they would have sold me the GMT II BLRO I requested. I got one 4 months later.

And even IF they had backstock they have plenty of vetted customers, of which I am one. There is no need to buy hundreds of thousands of $$. Your AD may vary; I speak of the one I know. I have expressed interest in an OP41 celebration. They won't get many but I will get one. Maybe not the first, but I will.

 

dealers have learned during the pandemic that this "shortage" can be a sales point. These days, demand is down, production is up by 30%, and there isn't so much of a shortage for the watch you are looking for. They have them in the back, but will tell you that they have none in stock. If you are honest, friendly, persistent, and seem sincere, you should be able to get that watch in a couple of months (or weeks). Good luck, and enjoy the hunt!

 

As much as some of us seem to believe getting the desired ROLEX at an AD is a pipedream, I think your comment absolutely hits the nail on the head. Being kind, honest, persistent and genuine with ADs/people in general has always served me well. Of course, buying my Sea-dweller in 2001 and bluesy in 2003 at an AD was duck soup back then ($4.300 and $5700, respectively).

 

No it's not the AD's fault. brodinky found out the source of this rumor.

 

No, the AD gets a sparse allocation of desirable (an even not so desirable ones). They have plenty of vetted customers, which means no flippers. They don't want Subs or GMT's etc to end up on the gray market. Rolex knows to whom they sent the piece and they don't want to see them at grays. This is the vetting. It's unrelated to how many diamonds or gemstones are bought.

Regarding stock, if they had any in the vault they would readily sell to the many people whom they have so vetted rather than leave inventory (their money) on the shelf. It's an untenable business model.

 

I’m pretty sure that Batman I’m waiting for is sitting in the safe. The problem for me is that they gave me a “hot steel model” four months ago, so I’m not due for another such mode for “a while”. My AD told me she has 1100 people waiting on a Rolex. It takes a lot of incoming shipments to meet that demand. But, even if they called me today for the watch, I’ll decline. Very happy with my Sub and see no need to have another five digit $ watch coming in.